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Trend in Models and research · tag claude · through Sep 2026

Claude Steady

On TutorHero's Everything Index, Claude is steady on GitHub: 7.34 of every 10,000 new public repos over the last three months (6.8k a month), 11x vs a year ago. The 12-month forecast says rising (+110%). By the end of 2032, lines in the same state ended between 0.01x and 2.5x of where they started (median 0.54x).

Per 10k new repos7.346.8k new repos a month
Year over year11x3 months: -9%
Next 12 months+110%80% band +78% to 7x
2032, median of history0.54x90% of past cases: 0.01x to 2.5x
Attention17.2%of new stars, +107% in a year
Jev 2032 call0.78xBetter than most similar lines
Share on X

Since 2019, and the range to 2032

0.030.10.313103010020192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032Range to 2032 (history of similar lines)Stable Diffusion releasedChatGPT launchesGPT-4Llama 2, open weightsModel Context ProtocolDeepSeek-R1Claude Code previewHigh 18.2Jev 5.75Median 3.94Low 0.08

New repos per 10,000 (3-month average, log scale)12-month forecastRange to 2032: middle half and 90% of past similar linesJev's 2032 call

The range is not a forecast of this line: it is what GitHub lines in the same state (more than doubled its share of new repos in a year) did 1 to 5 years later, 2019 to 2026, applied to today's level. Past 5 years it is stretched, not measured. Checked out of time (learned before 2022, scored after), 71% of outcomes landed inside the 90% range, so read it as wide. Open it in the Everything chart.

Week by week

Last week4.2k new reposOct 12 to Oct 18 · +53% against the field
Last 4 weeks▲ +31%9.6k new repos, against the 4 weeks before and the field
Wikipedia, 7 days37.3k views+8% against the 4 weeks before, all of Wikipedia the same way
AprMayJunJulAugSepOct

Wikipedia views a day, last 8 weeks

Aug 28Sep 4Sep 11Sep 18Sep 25Oct 2Oct 9Oct 16

New public repos with the claude tag each week (Monday to Sunday, UTC). The outlined bars, last week included, are still filling in, as tags are often added days after a repo is created, so their height will grow a little. "Against the field" divides the change by what the typical tag did, so a wave that lifts every tag does not count. Hover for the numbers.

Built vs talked about

Hacker News458 stories a month+66% share of HN vs a year ago · titles with "claude"
Wikipedia147k views a month2440x share of Wikipedia vs a year ago · Claude (AI)
Talk vs buildingBuilt more than talked aboutHacker News +66% vs GitHub new repos 11x over the year, compared with the typical trend

Each line is its own share (of all new GitHub repos, all Hacker News stories, all English Wikipedia views, all new stars on the repos we track), shown as a share of its own peak, so the timing and shape compare even though the units differ. Hover for the counts. Tap a name to hide or show a line.

What it means

Studentslearning it, contributing, getting hiredCommit this year
  • A steady field: Claude moved 11x in a year, so skills here keep their value without a rush.
  • Start by reading DietrichGebert/ponytail (+31.0k stars in 3 months) and affaan-m/ECC (+26.9k stars in 3 months).
  • People to follow: Affaan Mustafa, Fatih Kadir Akın, DietrichGebert.
  • Jev for someone who wants to contribute or get hired: Commit this year (2.8 of 4).
Founders and builderswhat to build nextCommit this year
  • Builders and attention both rising: new repos 11x, attention +107% in a year.
  • 14.3 new stars per new repo over 3 months, vs 8.50 for the typical trend: more demand per project than most fields.
  • The 12-month forecast for its share: +110% (Rising).
  • Built more than talked about: Hacker News +66% vs new repos 11x in a year, less talk per builder than the typical trend, so builders are ahead of the conversation.
  • Jev for a builder: Commit this year (2.6 of 4).
Investorswhich fields deserve research timeCommit this year
  • History: of past GitHub lines that more than doubled its share of new repos in a year, 61% had a smaller share 3 to 5 years later and 8% at least doubled.
  • Jev's 2032 call: better than most similar lines (unsure), which on the base rates means about 0.78x today's share by the end of 2032.
  • Attention: 17.2% of new stars on the repos we track, +107% in a year.
  • Hacker News: 458 stories a month, +66% share in a year; Wikipedia 147k views a month, 2440x.
  • Jev for an investor: Commit this year (2.5 of 4).
  • Not investment advice: this measures what people build on GitHub, not any company.
Developers choosing toolswhich tools to adoptCommit this year
  • Most-starred tools here lately: DietrichGebert/ponytail (vouched), affaan-m/ECC (vouched).
  • A settled field: favour tools with a long record.
  • Jev for a developer picking tools: Commit this year (2.7 of 4).

Repos carrying it now

DietrichGebert/ponytailMakes your AI agent think like the laziest senior dev in the room. The best code is the code you never wrote.+31.0k stars in 3 months · vouchedaffaan-m/ECCThe agent harness performance optimization system. Skills, instincts, memory, security, and research-first development for Claude Code, Code+26.9k stars in 3 months · vouchedpaperclipai/paperclipThe open-source app everyone uses to manage agents at work+16.5k stars in 3 months · vouchedblader/humanizerAgent skill that removes signs of AI-generated writing from text+14.0k stars in 3 months · voucheddiegosouzapw/OmniRouteNever stop coding. Free MIT AI gateway: one endpoint, 375 providers (150+ free), 1,400+ models Kimi, Claude, GPT, Gemini, GLM, DeepSeek, Min+13.0k stars in 3 months · vouchedNousResearch/hermes-agentThe agent that grows with you+12.3k stars in 3 months · vouched

People building it

Affaan MustafaLeading compute trading and building agent performance tools.Influence 91Fatih Kadir AkınBuilding prompts.chat and leading agentic experience at Automattic.Influence 78DietrichGebertCreating ponytail, a tool that makes AI agents write less code.Influence 77Next Level BuilderAI agent skills, GoClaw platform, and enterprise tools.Influence 61Julius BrusseeCreating caveman coding tools that reduce tokens.Influence 79Alex NewmanBuilds AI tools for persistent memory and agent context.Influence 84LobeHubAI agent team orchestration and open-source UI tools.Influence 76Diego Rodrigues de Sa e SouzaCreator of OmniRoute, an open-source AI gateway.Influence 80

More in Models and research

Machine learningSteady+72% in a year · 9.9k new repos a monthOpenAISteady+102% in a year · 3.0k new repos a monthPyTorchGrowing+133% in a year · 3.0k new repos a monthDeep learningCooling+20% in a year · 2.6k new repos a monthGeminiGrowing+128% in a year · 2.4k new repos a monthDeepSeekEmerging17x in a year · 2.3k new repos a monthChatGPTAccelerating+257% in a year · 1.3k new repos a monthQwenEmerging11x in a year · 951 new repos a monthTensorFlowFaded-6% in a year · 732 new repos a monthTransformersPeaking+69% in a year · 685 new repos a monthLoRAGrowing+233% in a year · 514 new repos a monthFine-tuningGrowing+79% in a year · 386 new repos a monthKerasFaded+11% in a year · 374 new repos a monthLlamaCooling+167% in a year · 296 new repos a monthLLM trainingCooling-38% in a year · 29 new repos a month

Questions

Is Claude growing on GitHub?

Yes. Its share of all new public GitHub repos is 11x vs a year ago and -9% over the last three months (Sep 2026). Phase: Steady.

How many new Claude repos are created each month?

About 6.8k new public repos a month carry the claude tag (three-month average to Sep 2026), or 7.34 of every 10,000 new repos.

What will Claude look like in 2032?

Nobody knows, and we say how much. Of past GitHub lines that more than doubled its share of new repos in a year, the middle half had between 0.14x and 1.27x of their share 3 to 5 years later, and 61% ended smaller. Jev's call: Better than most similar lines.

Is Claude more talked about than built?

Built more than talked about. Over the year its share of Hacker News stories moved +66% while its share of new GitHub repos moved 11x. New repos grew faster than talk for most AI trends this year, so the label compares it with the typical trend: about 1/1.8 of the talk per builder of the median trend.

Not investment advice. Measurements of what people build and star on GitHub, a statistical forecast, base rates and a model's reading of them. Nothing here is about any company's revenue, valuation or stock.